吃瓜爆料

吃瓜爆料 College faculty and a prominent Republican pollster reflected on the 2024 election, addressing questions about the extent and significance of shifts in the vote and assuring students and the public about the health of the American electoral system.  

The Nov. 12 panel, 鈥淲hat鈥檚 next? Postelection community debrief,鈥� featured Associate Professor of Political Science and Research Director at the Center for Election Innovation and Research Christopher Mann and Patrick Lanne, a Republican pollster and partner at Public Opinion Strategies. It was moderated Associate Professor of Political Science Robert Turner. 

Despite media rhetoric suggesting a runaway election for Republicans and President-elect Donald Trump, both Mann and Lanne emphasized the Nov. 5 election as extremely close, with voting trends broadly similar to other recent elections. They dismissed the idea that the election amounted to an essential political realignment in the country and pointed to fundamentals of the election 鈥� broader political and economic trends 鈥� that shaped the result.  

Lanne opened the evening by sharing three numbers that fundamentally handicapped the campaigns of President Joe Biden and later Vice President Kamala Harris: A strong majority of Americans indicated that the country was on the wrong track; the incumbent鈥檚 (Biden鈥檚) job approval rating was low; and a plurality of Americans indicated that they were worse off today than four years ago. 

鈥淭he polls told us it was a close election, and it was a close election,鈥� Lanne said, noting inflation as a particular challenge for both Biden and Harris. He stressed that both Trump and Harris ran disciplined campaigns but, in the end, the fundamentals were too much for the Harris campaign to overcome as many voters sought change.  

Mann, who has worked in Democratic campaigns in the past, largely agreed with Lanne鈥檚 analysis. He noted that significant voting trends remained consistent with previous results. With the exception of Latinos, whose votes according to county-level exit polls were in the 9鈥�10-point range, other groups exhibited more modest shifts in their votes for president, Mann said.   

鈥淓very other demographic group 鈥� white, college-educated, noncollege-educated, men, women, old, young 鈥� slice it any which way you will 鈥� the difference was between 2 points and 5 points,鈥� Mann said. 鈥淭here was one candidate running uphill and another running downhill. Harris made it farther uphill than the fundamentals would predict, but it was a long way to climb.鈥� 

Mann is on leave from 吃瓜爆料 as he directs research at the , a nonpartisan group working to build confidence in elections. He noted that with few exceptions the elections ran smoothly across the country and pointed to increasing access to registration and early voting in many states.  

鈥淭his was a resounding success for democracy. Make no mistake, even if you don鈥檛 like who won, the election was a massive success,鈥� he said, calling election officials and poll workers from both parties 鈥渃ivic heroes.鈥�   

In response to a question about the future of democracy in the country, Mann pointed to provocative rhetoric by Trump concerning election integrity and attacking election officials that extended back to 2016. But he also stressed that elections are run by local and state officials, and that federal authorities have limited ability to sway the results. 

鈥淭here is reason for people in both parties to stand up for those elections,鈥� Mann said. 

Both Mann and Lanne indicated that while this election put Republicans in charge of the White House and both houses of Congress, their margins in both chambers remained narrow and the political mood in the country was likely to continue to fluctuate.  

Lanne pointed out that 12 of 16 elections he has been involved in since 1994 had involved a significant shift in power from one party to another. 

He encouraged students to be active politically and stand up for their convictions.  

鈥淚f you want to make a difference, you have to go out and fight for it,鈥� Lanne said. 鈥淕iving up should never be an option. All the parties go through these highs and lows. You've got to go and do it.鈥� 

The program was the final event in a robust range of programming 鈥� lectures, panel discussions, art exhibitions, and more 鈥� that 吃瓜爆料 organized for the 2024 election.  

鈥淭he turnout this evening is a testament to our need to be together in this moment,鈥� said Ian Berry, Dayton Director of the Tang Teaching Museum, which hosted "What鈥檚 next?鈥� and many other events in the series in conjunction with the exhibition "."   

President Marc Conner, who has made free speech a top priority of his presidency, said the programming presented a multiplicity of views and perspectives on the election and that that discussion would continue. He thanked thanked 吃瓜爆料  staff,  faculty, and students for their many contributions. 

鈥淚n the fall, I said that we were going to turn our campus into a semester-long seminar on this remarkable election season,鈥� said Conner, a founding member of . 鈥淭his is not the end of our interpretive work on this election. We鈥檙e going to be interpreting this election for the rest of our lives and certainly for the rest of this year.鈥�  

鈥淚 am profoundly grateful, first and foremost to our students. Our students have been showing up at these events, hearing different points of view, hearing contested perspectives, embracing it, arguing it, interpreting it, certainly teaching me 鈥� teaching all of us.鈥�